Cincinnati Financial Stock Reported Strong Fourth Quarter Results, What to Expect?

Cincinnati Financial Action (NASDAQ: CINF) gained 3.7% last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 1.4%). Additionally, the stock is up 8.5% over the past month versus a 2.8% drop in the broader markets. Overall, the stock has improved in the short term, unlike the S&P500 index.

The company offers P&C insurance products in the United States. It recently released its fourth quarter results, beating consensus estimates for profit and revenue. Total revenue increased 23% year-on-year to $3.3 billion in the quarter, primarily driven by 10% growth in total premiums and an 8% increase in net income investments. In addition, this translated into a 40% jump in net sales. Along the same lines, CINF’s revenue increased 28% year-on-year to $9.6 billion and net profit improved 142% year-on-year to $2.9 billion in fiscal year 2021. Notably, the unusually high net income figure was due to higher revenues and a decline in total profit and expenses as a % of revenue. The growth above was the main reason for positive investor sentiment towards the stock.

Now, should CINF stock rise further or can we expect a decline? We believe there is a 61% chance of a rise in Cincinnati Financial stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of stock price trends over the past ten last years. See our analysis on Cincinnati Financial Stock Chance Upside.

Additionally, if you are considering Cincinnati Financial stock as a longer-term investment option, you can explore our forecast for Cincinnati Financial Valuation.

Twenty-one day: CINF 8.5%, vs. S&P500 -2.8%; Market outperformed

(11% probability event; 61% upside probability over the next 21 days)

  • Cincinnati Financial Action gained 8.5% over the past twenty-one trading days (one month), versus a broader market (S&P500) down 2.8%
  • A change of 8.5% or more over twenty-one trading days is an 11% probability event, which has occurred 267 out of 2517 times in the last ten years
  • Of these 267 instances, the stock has seen positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 163 occasions.
  • This indicates a 61% chance that the stock will rise over the next twenty-one trading days.

Ten days: CINF 3.2%, vs. S&P500 -3.2%; Market outperformed

(23% probability event; 59% upside probability over the next 10 days)

  • Cincinnati Financial Action increased by 3.2% over the past ten trading days (two weeks), versus a broader market (S&P500) down 3.2%
  • A change of 3.2% or more over ten trading days is a 23% probability event, which has occurred 581 out of 2,517 times in the past ten years
  • Of these 581 instances, the stock has seen positive movement over the next ten trading days on 341 occasions.
  • This indicates a 59% chance that the stock will rise over the next ten trading days

Five days: CINF 3.7%, vs. S&P500 -1.4%; Market outperformed

(8% probability event; 61% upside probability over the next five days)

  • Cincinnati Financial Action gained 3.7% over a five-day trading period ending 02/18/2022, relative to the broader market (S&P500) down 1.4%
  • A change of 3.7% or more over five trading days (one week) is an 8% probability event, which has occurred 198 out of 2517 times in the last ten years
  • Of these 198 instances, the stock has seen positive movement over the next five trading days on 120 occasions.
  • This indicates a 61% chance that the stock will rise over the next five trading days

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